Convective Outlook: Mon 06 May 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 06 May 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 07 May 2019

ISSUED 09:11 UTC Mon 06 May 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Cold pool associated with an upper low over Scandinavia will give a glancing blow over the Northern Isles on Monday morning. Scattered showers may produce a few isolated lightning strikes given reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates and marginal CAPE, the risk reducing through the afternoon.


Elsewhere, an occluded front will slowly drift southwards from southern Scotland into Northern Ireland, northern England and East Anglia. The front is expected to become increasingly convective in nature, aided by low-level convergence and some diurnal heating. While CAPE is rather meagre, the environment is well-sheared which may be enough to compensate for an isolated lightning strike. That said, profiles remain capped at around 700mb, therefore limiting convective depth. Nonetheless, there could be a few funnel clouds associated with this convection.