Convective Outlook: Thu 09 May 2019 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
Broad upper trough covers the British Isles on Thursday, associated cool air aloft combined with diurnal heating helping to generate a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Low-level convergence will aid the development of scattered showers in a rather random fashion, primarily within the LOW threat area.
VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 09 May 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 10 May 2019
ISSUED 06:02 UTC Thu 09 May 2019
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
UPDATE 06:02 UTC A SLGT has been introduced over SE England, and a low-end SLGT also across parts of Northern Ireland / N + E Republic of Ireland. Minor tweaks were made to the existing LOW threat areas
The most intense cells may produce a few sporadic lightning strikes - particularly across SE England and Northern Ireland / northern Republic of Ireland. Given somewhat weak shear and marginal CAPE, coupled with some concern over excessive cloud associated with lingering occlusion debris, have refrained from issuing any low-end SLGTs for now. In any case, there may well be several reports of funnel clouds / weak tornado given marked low-level convergence, ample surface moisture and relatively low cloud bases.