Convective Outlook: Tue 28 May 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 28 May 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 29 May 2019

ISSUED 18:26 UTC Mon 27 May 2019

ISSUED BY: Chris

A slack pressure pattern will persist across Britain with low pressure situated across southern Scandinavia. Higher pressure will build from the southwest and into Ireland and southwestern Britain later. 


Cold air aloft and surface heating will help to generate 200-300 J/kg of CAPE by the afternoon and scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible. This is especially the case across the E Mids/E Anglia/SE Eng by mid-afternoon. Forecast profiles highlight some drier air above 500mb, and this could limit the depth of convection and thus limit lightning potential. 

Both low-level and deep-layer wind shear remains light, however with the colder air aloft and dry air in the mid-levels there is the potential for a few funnels or even a brief land-spout tornado as any stronger convection develops in the afternoon (again most likely across E Eng/E Anglia).