A very messy precipitation pattern will play out in association with the aforementioned trough and surface low. Several occluded fronts across Ireland and into northern and western Britain will be the focus for thicker cloud and outbreaks of rain, although weak instability and areas of PVA will aid in some convective elements within the precipitation pattern. Due to the moist profiles and limited shear, showers are unlikely to produce much lightning in these areas. 

While convection is possible across all of the LOW risk area, the higher resolution models indicate that a line of more intense showers may develop across the Midlands and move into E England (Leics/Lincs/Yorks) in response to insolation during the mid to late afternoon. Deep layer shear is more favourable in these area and as such this zone will be monitored for an upgrade to a slight risk. An update will be considered around 7am on Tuesday morning.