| Convective Outlook: Sat 15 Jun 2019 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 15 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 16 Jun 2019
ISSUED 20:40 UTC Fri 14 Jun 2019
ISSUED BY: Dan
Similar to Friday, an upper low will cover much of the British Isles on Saturday, centred to the west of Ireland. An occlusion will straddle W Scotland / Wales / SW England at the beginning of this forecast period, but weakening as it drifts farther east through the day as forcing aloft overruns. The residual low-level moisture (dewpoints 9-11C) will then be subject to surface heating, yielding a few hundred J/kg CAPE. As such, early dynamic rain will transition to a much more convective look by the afternoon, with scattered showers along the old frontal boundary, but also potentially in areas ahead of and behind the boundary. A few isolated lightning strikes will be possible almost anywhere, but primarily central/eastern England - though even here, any lightning is not expected to be significant enough to warrant a SLGT.
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