Convective Outlook: Wed 17 Jul 2019 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 17 Jul 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 18 Jul 2019
ISSUED 20:09 UTC Tue 16 Jul 2019
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
An isolated heavy shower is possible over East Anglia / E Midlands during Wednesday afternoon / early evening - but limited cloud depth and weak shear suggests the risk of lightning is rather low.
Remnants of embedded elevated convection may approach SW Ireland on Wednesday morning, but weakening with time. A shallow moist zone will evolve over Ireland during the afternoon / early evening, as a marked mid-level dry intrusion overspreads residual moist low-levels. Some reasonable shear will exist, and it seems plausible elements of line convection could develop and spread eastwards. Depth of convection will likely be too shallow for any lightning, the risk considered sub-5% and so no threat levels have been issued.
During the early hours of Thursday, scattered showers will begin to affect coastal parts of W / NW Ireland and W Scotland, as the Atlantic upper trough approaches from the west. A few isolated lightning strikes may be possible.