Pulses of largely frontal (dynamic) rain will push northeastwards across Ireland and western Scotland, however there is scope for elevated convection to develop along the Theta-E ridge as a mid-level dry intrusion rides over an increasingly warm, moist low-level airmass. EURO4 / UKV / ECMWF have remained consistent in developing elevated thunderstorms late morning over the Atlantic to the west of Connacht / Munster, these then migrating northeastwards across Connacht in particular during the afternoon hours, and towards Ulster.

Confidence is rather low as to how much lightning activity will occur given rather weak instability and fairly saturated profiles, but the environment will be strongly-sheared and as such a low-end SLGT has been introduced. It is plausible there could be quite a bit of heavy (torrential) rain but a distinct lack of notable lightning activity. It is also possible other sporadic pulses of lightning could occur elsewhere in Ireland outside of the SLGT area, but it is rather difficult to be more specific at this stage - and adjustments may be required to the forecast.

While most convection will be elevated, should a stronger cell be able to root within the boundary layer then strong LLS, notable SREH and backed surface winds could allow a tornado to occur. In general, most lightning activity should decrease by the evening hours with only isolated strikes expected on Sunday night.