Convective Outlook: Sat 27 Jul 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 27 Jul 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 28 Jul 2019

ISSUED 09:17 UTC Sat 27 Jul 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 09:16 UTC LOW extended to include NE Scotland for late Saturday night. SLGT removed from SE England as the risk of lightning here has largely eased

Residual instability plume associated with the remains of an EML (elevated mixed layer) will continue to sit to the east of a cold front, which itself will become quasi-stationary across the British Isles on Saturday. Semi-random pulses of elevated convection, and hence thunderstorms, will continue to develop at various times through this forecast period - a blend of various model guidance would suggest the risk is highest during Saturday morning, and gradually decreasing thereafter as the EML shrinks and profiles moisten, ultimately reducing the available instability.

There will also be a messy mixture of frontal and convective precipitation, with any lightning activity most likely on the eastern side of any precipitation. Main threat will be prolonged heavy downpours, with elements of shower training bringing a significant risk of locally high rainfall totals and hence flash flooding.