Showery rain will be ongoing across northern England during the morning, slowly clearing to the North Sea. Scotland on the other hand will be drier, with better prospects for some surface heating in the morning. By the afternoon, areas of low-level wind convergence and orographic forcing will serve as the main mechanism to develop scattered showers and thunderstorms, these persisting until the first half of the evening before gradually decaying as the boundary layer begins to cool. Cloud cover is the main concern that may inhibit deep convection in places, particularly northern England.

Slow storm motion due to weak steering winds will lead to locally prolonged downpours, bringing the risk of flash flooding. Hail up to 1.5cm in diameter is possible, particularly in Scotland where instability will be greatest - and here lightning is likely to be more active than in northern England. However, the lack of any meaningful shear and hence weak organisation of cells suggests storms may become rather outflow-dominant, and hence short-lived (in terms of lightning activity). The odd funnel cloud will also be possible.