Convective Outlook: Thu 01 Aug 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 01 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 02 Aug 2019

ISSUED 19:52 UTC Wed 31 Jul 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Our old friend, the vertically-stacked low, will linger over the North Sea during Thursday, with a general northwesterly flow across the British Isles. Upper ridging will gradually build from the southwest, but not sufficiently enough to suppress another day of deep convection. In response to diurnal heating, 300-600 J/kg CAPE should be available by the afternoon hours, which combined with low-level convergence and orographic forcing could lead to the development of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.


Winds will be rather weak in the low and mid-levels, so organisation of cells is unlikely, but stronger flow aloft near the anvil level may help with venting. In general though, storms will be weaker (in terms of lightning activity) than compared with the previous couple of days, but any additional rainfall over already saturated ground poses a risk of local flooding. The strongest cells may produce some small hail, while the odd funnel cloud is possible as low-level vorticity gets stretched by the updraft of showers. Showers/storms will gradually decay during the evening hours as daytime heating subsides.