Convective Outlook: Fri 02 Aug 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 02 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 03 Aug 2019

ISSUED 19:11 UTC Thu 01 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A weak upper ridge will gradually extend across the British Isles from the west on Friday, but not strong enough to suppress deep convection. Diurnal heating, low-level convergence and orographic forcing will serve to develop a few well-scattered showers, in an environment with up to 500 J/kg CAPE. Weak shear suggests "pulse type" convection is most likely, with convective depth somewhat limited compared with previous days - so any lightning activity per given shower will tend to be quite short-lived and fairly isolated, with moist areas void of lightning. The odd funnel cloud will be possible as low-level vorticity is stretched by shower updrafts.


Late on Friday night an approaching frontal system over SW Ireland may contain some embedded elevated convection, but the risk of lightning is considered rather low due to weak instability and saturated profiles.