Convective Outlook: Sat 03 Aug 2019 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 03 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 04 Aug 2019
ISSUED 07:51 UTC Sat 03 Aug 2019
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Upper ridge over eastern Britain will gradually weaken on Saturday as heights fall aloft in advance of the approaching Atlantic upper low. Diurnal heating may help yield 300-500 J/kg CAPE across western Britain by Saturday afternoon, by which stage profiles will gradually moisten with depth. Low-level convergence and orographic forcing could lead to the development of scattered showers, and perhaps one or two thunderstorms. Profiles exhibit a fairly substantial warm nose between 500-700mb which may restrict convective depth somewhat, and combined with fairly weak shear would suggest the risk of lightning is somewhat limited despite the likelihood of scattered heavy showers. Main focus appears to be over north Wales and NW England, but confidence is not high enough to introduce a SLGT.