One trough axis swings across Scotland during the morning / early afternoon, and so the area of deep convection potential will gradually become increasingly restricted to N / NE Scotland with time. Nonetheless, some sporadic lightning is likely and a SLGT has been issued. Shear is rather weak, and so "pulse type" convection is the most likely mode, but the strongest cells could produce hail up to 1.5cm in diameter. A couple of funnel clouds / weak tornadoes will be possible given stretching of low-level vorticity by updrafts.

A messier picture evolves across Ireland with initial discrete showers and a few thunderstorms developing, then replaced by a more organised area of showery rain arriving from the Atlantic. Shear will be stronger across Ireland, but CAPE skinnier, which suggests lightning may be a little more isolated than across Scotland.

Scattered showers / isolated thunderstorms will be possible elsewhere across the British Isles at various times through this 24 hour period but in general convective depth will be too restricted and / or instability too weak for much in the way of lightning. One area of potential interest could be East Anglia during the early afternoon where there may be scope for heavy showers and a few thunderstorms to develop as the frontal boundary clears eastwards, although lightning activity is expected to expand in coverage offshore as the main area of interest continues to drift across the North Sea.

While lightning activity will tend to reduce in many areas through the evening hours, the risk continues overnight across parts of Ireland and the Celtic Sea.