Convective Outlook: Tue 20 Aug 2019 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 20 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 21 Aug 2019
ISSUED 06:04 UTC Tue 20 Aug 2019
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
A rather messy pattern on Tuesday, with an upper trough gradually departing eastern England while an upper ridge builds across Ireland - neither particularly pronounced. The surface pattern is rather slack with weak ridging. Frontal boundaries provide the focus for low-level moisture and convergence, with convective overturning through the day helping to aid the development of scattered showers. Other showers are expected to develop within the warm sector over Ireland too.
In most cases, weak shear, fairly saturated profiles and marginal instability suggest the risk of lightning from a given shower is rather low. However, isolated pockets of sporadic lightning may be possible.