Convective Outlook: Sat 31 Aug 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 31 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 01 Sep 2019

ISSUED 09:39 UTC Sat 31 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Weak instability and marked mid-level dry intrusion in a highly-sheared environment along a cold front drifting slowly eastwards across Britain during Saturday will encourage some convection on the rear side of the frontal precipitation - with a few LEWPs noted in radar imagery so far this morning. Overall the limited convective depth and weak CAPE suggests the risk of lightning is rather low, although some gusty winds may occur locally.


The post-frontal environment will be characterised by a cold pool overspreading the British Isles as an upper trough shifts eastwards, steepening lapse rates and generating a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Showers will become more widespread across Ireland and western Scotland through Saturday, extending across the Irish Sea and into western England/Wales later in the day, and continuing overnight. A few isolated lightning strikes and/or small hail may be possible from the strongest cells.