Convective Outlook: Thu 12 Dec 2019

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 12 Dec 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 13 Dec 2019

ISSUED 23:30 UTC Wed 11 Dec 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Scattered showers will affect western Scotland and the Northern Isles on Thursday morning, but these will gradually ease with time as an Atlantic frontal system spreads across many parts of the British Isles. On the rear side, a disrupting upper trough and associated cold pool will slide southeastwards across the southwest quadrant of the British Isles, with various pulses of showery rain likely at times. In both cases, a few isolated lightning strikes may occur. The best overlap of shear and instability will be across south Wales and SW England, and so here the risk of lightning is considered a little higher than elsewhere.