Convective Outlook: Sun 15 Dec 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 15 Dec 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 16 Dec 2019

ISSUED 23:04 UTC Sat 14 Dec 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Similar to Saturday, a strong southwesterly flow aloft will cover much of central and southern parts of the British Isles during Sunday, on the forward side of a broad upper trough. Several shortwaves will move quickly northeastwards in the flow, enhancing shower activity and organising into longer spells of rain at times, with some linear features / bow echoes likely at times capable of producing squally winds, small hail and perhaps a tornado.


Strong shear, steep mid-level lapse rates and several hundred J/kg CAPE will result in some sporadic lightning in places, particularly close to the southern and western coasts. A few episodes of interest exist - across parts of Wales on Sunday morning, Irish Sea during the afternoon then more widely over southern and western Britain during the evening hours (particularly Dorset to IoW northeastwards towards London). A low-end SLGT has been introduced.