| Convective Outlook: Thu 19 Dec 2019 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 19 Dec 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 20 Dec 2019
ISSUED 06:57 UTC Thu 19 Dec 2019
ISSUED BY: Dan
A rather complex pattern for Thursday, as a longwave upper trough over the Atlantic becomes increasingly negatively-tilted, with minor shortwaves moving northwards in the strong southerly flow aloft. These will serve as the primary focus for episodes of increased instability and convective activity, amongst general areas of more organised frontal rain that will periodically move northwards at times during the forecast period. As such, a few lightning strikes may be possible just about anywhere, but the main risk will be focussed over the Irish / Celtic Seas and English Channel, and into adjacent coasts - particularly SW England, S Wales and S Ireland. Given the strongly-sheared environment at times, convection may exhibit some organisation, perhaps deviating to the right of the mean flow. Small hail and gusty winds will be possible.
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