| Convective Outlook: Fri 20 Dec 2019 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 20 Dec 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 21 Dec 2019
ISSUED 06:51 UTC Fri 20 Dec 2019
ISSUED BY: Dan
Broad upper trough will linger close to the British Isles throughout Friday, with several shortwaves rotating around its base. These will provide the focus for enhanced convective activity, primarily affecting Celtic / Irish Seas and English Channel, and adjacent coasts, at various times through this forecast period. Between 12z - 00z, shear will be rather weak and this may limit how frequent and / or widespread any lightning may be. Towards late evening onwards into the early hours of Saturday, shear will increase from west to east (although much of this above the cloud tops) and this coupled with increasing instability suggests a better environment for some sporadic lightning to occur along southern and western coasts. Hail up to 1.5cm in diameter and gusty winds will be possible with the most organised cells.
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