VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 24 Dec 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 25 Dec 2019

ISSUED 05:55 UTC Tue 24 Dec 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

The main interest will be during Tuesday morning from the Celtic Sea / St Georges Channel across Wales and parts of SW England. A shortwave will move eastwards across these area, with deep convection likely to be present in an environment with several hundred J/kg CAPE, strong shear (albeit mostly uni-directional) and potential instability. This suggests that convection may become organised, with the potential for one or two low-topped supercells. Strong gusts of wind, hail up to 2.0cm in diameter, isolated tornadoes and some sporadic lightning is possible. Confidence is not particularly high on the coverage of lightning (which serves as the primary focus for our forecast maps), but a low-end SLGT has been issued to highlight the areas where lightning is most likely to occur, albeit rather sporadically. Some disruption may be possible locally.