Convective Outlook: Mon 06 Jan 2020
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 06 Jan 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 07 Jan 2020

ISSUED 21:39 UTC Sun 05 Jan 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A post-frontal trough (or secondary cold front) will move into NW Ireland and W Scotland late morning, marked by a change in dewpoint and wind veer. This is located on the forward side of an upper trough, with notable PVA, marked mid-level dry intrusion and strong shear. While CAPE may be a little meagre, a convective line is expected to affect the aforementioned areas, capable of strong gusts of wind and perhaps a few isolated lightning strikes - although the depth of convection may be a little restricted.


Once this has moved through, the main upper trough axis and cold pool aloft will overspread the areas highlighted, characterised by a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Scattered showers will feed inland, which may produce isolated lightning strikes, but the risk is considered fairly low given the restricted depth of convection.