Convective Outlook: Mon 27 Jan 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 27 Jan 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 28 Jan 2020

ISSUED 06:59 UTC Mon 27 Jan 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A rather complex pattern will evolve for Monday, with a broad upper trough and notable cold pool over the British Isles, with shortwaves embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft. The environment will be characterised by very steep mid-level lapse rates, yielding several hundred J/kg CAPE over open waters. A mixture of dynamic and convective precipitation is expected in many places at times, as various troughs and occlusions move erratically northeastwards. Consequently, a few isolated lightning strikes will be possible just about anywhere, but many places will remain void of lightning. The greatest risk of some sporadic lightning will be in southern and western coastal counties, and over open seas, where the greatest instability will be located. Confidence in lightning coverage is not high enough to introduce a SLGT at this stage, but the main areas of focus will be western Scotland, and the English Channel during the overnight hours.