Convective Outlook: Mon 03 Feb 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 03 Feb 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 04 Feb 2020

ISSUED 17:20 UTC Sun 02 Feb 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A strong westerly flow aloft will cover the British Isles during Monday, but as the upper pattern becomes increasingly amplified so an upper trough will slide southeastwards late in the day and overnight. As a result, the associated cold pool will lead to an environment with steep mid-level lapse rates and a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Showers will affect many parts of Scotland and Ireland during the day, migrating southeastwards later and overnight, merging to give some longer spells of precipitation in places. A few isolated lightning strikes will be possible, mainly near western coasts where showers will move onshore.