Convective Outlook: Fri 21 Feb 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 21 Feb 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 22 Feb 2020

ISSUED 00:37 UTC Fri 21 Feb 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Frontal rain will affect Northern Ireland, southern Scotland, northern England and north Wales through much of Friday daytime. North of this, showers will spread across the Hebrides, Northern Isles and northern Scottish mainland. Despite marginal CAPE, the strongly-sheared environment could encourage a few isolated lightning strikes to occur. Overnight, the main frontal rain will sink southwards, allowing more of northern Britain to be affected by deep convection with showers becoming widespread, driven by strong westerly winds. Hail is likely in many of the showers (along with snow in places), and sporadic lightning will likely become more widespread across northern and western Scotland as mid-level lapse rates continue to steepen, and CAPE increases. A low-end SLGT has been issued, with the main interest during Friday night.