Convective Outlook: Thu 05 Mar 2020
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 05 Mar 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 06 Mar 2020

ISSUED 06:51 UTC Thu 05 Mar 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Showers will affect parts of Ireland, northern and western Scotland during Thursday daytime, others also developing inland in response to diurnal heating. However, marginal instability and limited convective depth suggests any lightning will be isolated. Some deeper convection may develop over the Brest peninsula, close to the centre of a deepening cyclone over northern France. This brings a slightly higher risk of lightning close to the Channel Islands around late morning/early afternoon, before clearing to the east - most activity will probably stay to the south in either case.

On Thursday evening and night, an approaching Atlantic upper trough will drive an area of showery rain across Ireland into SW Britain, with additional showers likely to develop over the Irish Sea in advance of this feature. The disrupting nature of the upper trough casts considerable uncertainty over the exact shape and position of the front at any given time, with several small-scale low centres likely to evolve along the frontal boundary, generally sliding to the southeast. Either way, a few isolated lightning strikes will be possible with this feature and/or the post-frontal showers, but not much in the way of lightning is expected.