Convective Outlook: Fri 06 Mar 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 06 Mar 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 07 Mar 2020

ISSUED 20:33 UTC Thu 05 Mar 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A disrupting upper trough will see one portion split and drift away to the southeast across Biscay towards the western Mediterranean, while another portion heads northeast past western Scotland. Consequently, pressure will tend to build across the neck of the two upper lows, generally suppressing much in the way of deep convection. Nonetheless, showers are still expected, primarily across western coastal areas driven by sea temperatures and the dregs of an old occlusion, but others will develop inland (such as the Midlands) in response to diurnal heating and aided by a strip of shear vorticity aloft. The risk of lightning in general is considered very low but non-zero, most areas will likely remain void of lightning.