Convective Outlook: Sun 08 Mar 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 08 Mar 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 09 Mar 2020

ISSUED 05:21 UTC Sun 08 Mar 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

As frontal rain clears southeast England first thing on Sunday morning associated with a cold front, the remainder of the forecast period is then dominated by an upper trough migrating eastwards across the British Isles, the associated cold pool creating an environment with steep mid-level lapse rates and 200-500 J/kg CAPE. Scattered showers are expected, particularly across Ireland and western Britain initially, but also extending farther inland due to a combination of diurnal heating and more organised features swinging eastwards in the flow. A few isolated lightning strikes will be possible just about anywhere from the most active cells, however the risk in most areas is considered just below the SLGT threshold (30%). Hail may accompany several of the showers. In general, showers will ease across Ireland during Sunday night as ridging develops ahead of the next Atlantic frontal system.