Convective Outlook: Thu 12 Mar 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 12 Mar 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 13 Mar 2020

ISSUED 06:47 UTC Thu 12 Mar 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper troughing will migrate eastwards across the British Isles on Thursday, the cold air aloft creating an environment with steep mid-level lapse rates and 200-500 J/kg CAPE. Showers will be most frequent over Ireland and Scotland, merging to give some longer spells of rain as more organised features track eastwards with time. Showers will generally be more isolated over England and Wales, and while the depth of convection may well be somewhat more restricted, the environment will be strongly-sheared. As such, a few isolated lightning strikes could occur just about anywhere, but the risk in any one location is considered below the SLGT threshold (30%). Perhaps the most likely area to see some sporadic lightning, primarily due to better instability, will be over western Scotland during the morning, the focus perhaps shifting to Ireland by the afternoon, and maybe NW England later in the day. Overnight, upper ridging will build from the west, resulting in reducing instability and restricted convective depth, and so the overall lightning risk by the night hours will reduce.