Convective Outlook: Fri 13 Mar 2020
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 13 Mar 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 14 Mar 2020

ISSUED 06:47 UTC Fri 13 Mar 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Weak ridging will generally dominate across the British Isles on Friday, although the slack surface pattern combined with diurnal heating and low-level convergence will likely lead to convective cloud development and a few scattered shallow showers developing over parts of England and Wales. However, given limited instability (up to 200 J/kg CAPE at best), weak shear in the cloud-bearing layers and restricted cloud depth (ELTs down to -10C) very little, if any, lightning is expected.


Similarly, showery rain affecting Ireland may contain some embedded convection on the rear side, but weak instability suggests any lightning will be isolated.