Convective Outlook: Thu 19 Mar 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 19 Mar 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 20 Mar 2020

ISSUED 08:54 UTC Thu 19 Mar 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Scattered showers will affect parts of Scotland on Thursday, perhaps producing an isolated lightning strike - but the risk is considered very low. On Thursday night, the increasingly backed flow aloft will advect a relatively warm, moist airmass northwards from France over the English Channel, atop a cold undercut. The subsequent lift is likely to result in increasing mid-level instability (a few hundred J/kg CAPE), and showery outbreaks of rain developing in the vicinity which may be capable of producing a few lightning strikes. Confidence is not currently high enough to warrant a SLGT at this stage, although the Channel Islands would appear to be at greatest risk during the early hours of Friday.