Convective Outlook: Mon 27 Apr 2020
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 27 Apr 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 28 Apr 2020

ISSUED 06:37 UTC Mon 27 Apr 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Cold pool, associated with an upper trough, will linger across Scotland during Monday, creating an environment with marginally-steep mid-level lapse rates and a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. As such scattered showers are likely, which pose a low (10%) risk of lightning given somewhat restricted depth to convection - the deepest convection is most likely over western Scotland where ELTs may be as low as -20C.

A few showers are also likely in other parts of England, Wales and Ireland, aided by low-level convergence and diurnal heating. However, weak instability and shallow depth of convection suggests the risk of lightning is very low (<5%).

On Monday night, outbreaks of rain will develop more widely across southern Britain as a surface low gradually deepens in the vicinity. Some elevated weak convection may be embedded, drifting from northern France into CS / SE England - but the risk of lightning is considered very low (5%).