Convective Outlook: Tue 12 May 2020
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 12 May 2020 - 05:59 UTC Wed 13 May 2020

ISSUED 08:00 UTC Tue 12 May 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 07:59 UTC LOW extended farther south across Scotland in light of latest guidance

A potent upper trough will slide southwards down the North Sea on Tuesday, creating a short window for deep convection over the Northern Isles during the morning. While the depth of convection will be somewhat restricted, and instability fairly weak, some reasonable shear in the cloud-bearing layer may perhaps be enough to compensate for the odd isolated lightning strike. 

Meanwhile, an active cold front will sink southwards across Scotland, exhibiting a marked temperature gradient (especially aided by diurnal heating ahead of it) and wind veer (WNW to N). Line convection is likely to develop, especially given the strongly sheared environment, and may produce squally winds in places. Lightning activity is questionable given somewhat weak instability, but the reasonably strong shear and forcing aloft may be enough to compensate for a few isolated strikes, but the risk overall is considered very low.