Convective Outlook: Mon 01 Jun 2020
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 01 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 02 Jun 2020

ISSUED 06:34 UTC Mon 01 Jun 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridging dominates across southern Britain, but heights will gradually fall across Scotland through Monday as an upper trough approaches from the west. Diurnal heating and slack surface flow will develop areas of low-level convergence, combined with orographic forcing to generate some convective cloud during the afternoon and early evening. Forecast profiles exhibit 100-300 J/kg CAPE and a mid-level cap (~700mb), although this slowly lifts through the day as the upper trough approaches. Convection may be able to grow sufficiently deep, especially late in the day, for a few isolated heavy showers, but given weak shear in the cloud-bearing layer, meagre instability and limited depth, the risk of lightning is considered very low. 

Overnight, a minor shortwave will drift eastwards across Scotland serving to cool/moisten the mid levels, while a relatively warm layer persists below 850mb. The net result is an increase in mid-level instability, and given subtle forcing approaching from the west then there may be an uptick in elevated shower activity across E / NE Scotland during the early hours of Tuesday, and more especially towards the end of this forecast period / offshore.