VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 02 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Wed 03 Jun 2020

ISSUED 20:45 UTC Mon 01 Jun 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A minor shortwave exiting from eastern Scotland on Tuesday morning may aid in the development of a few elevated showers here, and more especially offshore. Meanwhile, an upper trough will elongate across the British Isles through this forecast period, resulting in cooling aloft progressively from north to south. During daylight hours the main focus for deep convection will be Scotland, and later NE England, as diurnal heating yields 100-300 J/kg CAPE. Given the generally slack surface pattern, low-level convergence and orographic forcing will likely provide the main forcing mechanism for scattered showers to develop, both ahead of and perhaps within the ragged frontal rain that will gradually slide southeastwards across Scotland. Rather warm, moist mid-levels will tend to restrict convective depth to below 600mb, and this overall will limit the potential for much in the way of lightning. The main focus for lightning will be E / SE Scotland into NE England with more discrete cells possible for a time, but ultimately this may merge into a general area of showery rain with time.