Convective Outlook: Thu 23 Jul 2020
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 23 Jul 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 24 Jul 2020

ISSUED 04:56 UTC Thu 23 Jul 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A few isolated heavy showers may develop on Thursday afternoon in response to diurnal heating, low-level convergence and orographic forcing - more especially across eastern Scotland. Forecast profiles suggest ELTs down to -20C may be possible, and so there is a small risk of a few isolated lightning strikes, although the overall depth of convection will likely be too shallow for much activity. 

Meanwhile, some showery precipitation will drift eastwards towards SW England through the day, and while some embedded elevated convection is possible the rather saturated profiles and weak CAPE suggests the risk of lightning is very low.