Convective Outlook: Sat 22 Aug 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 22 Aug 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 23 Aug 2020

ISSUED 07:52 UTC Sat 22 Aug 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough will migrate eastwards across Britain and Ireland on Saturday, the associated cooling in the mid-levels helping to steepen mid-level lapse rates and increase the depth of convection for a time. Scattered showers will spread eastwards through the day, with perhaps a more organised area of showery rain migrating from Ireland into Wales / northern England / southern Scotland. A few isolated lightning strikes could occur from the most intense cells (most likely from the Pennines/Peak District across the East Midlands to Yorkshire/Lincolnshire, 15-20% chance), especially considering 20-35kts DLS which will aid organisation and cell longevity into line segments at times. Some rather gusty winds could occur around some of the showers, potentially 40-50mph.