Convective Outlook: Mon 24 Aug 2020
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 24 Aug 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 25 Aug 2020

ISSUED 06:51 UTC Mon 24 Aug 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper ridging will migrate eastwards across Britain and Ireland during Monday, but not sufficiently strong to prevent convective cloud / showers developing in response to diurnal heating. There will also be an area of showery rain associated with a shallow low sliding eastwards across south Wales and southern England. In its wake, slack surface pattern will allow a few convergence zones to develop, especially across southern coastal counties of England, and from E / SE Scotland into E England. These may provide the focus for scattered heavy showers to develop - however most convection will be somewhat restricted in height, but the odd isolated lightning strike cannot be ruled out (most likely southern England).

Overnight, a rapidly deepening area of low pressure beneath the left exit of a strong jet will approach western Ireland, with a large precipitation shield spreading in advance of this courtesy of strong warm advection and forcing aloft. Some embedded elevated convection could occur, more especially close to the low centre (i.e. western / central Ireland) where a better overlap of dry air aloft atop warm, moist low-levels will increase instability and lightning risk - particularly at the end of the night. A SLGT may be introduced if confidence increases.