By midday and early afternoon, the focus for deep convection will have shifted to northern England, with earlier activity (if any) likely to have weakened but a small window of opportunity of isolated surface-based shower/thunderstorm to develop over the Pennines and drift towards NE England - but much of this will depend on the extent of cloud cover and limited surface heating. Elsewhere, a typical shallow moist zone is likely with extensive low-level moisture and a marked dry intrusion aloft. The strongly-sheared environment suggests several line segments will be possible, capable of producing squally winds on top of the existing strong background wind field, although the risk of lightning is quite low due to the shallow nature of convection. One exception could be along the cold front over eastern England where a gradual increase in deeper convection is possible, especially as it moves offshore and the environment becomes increasingly unstable. Consequently, an uptick in lightning activity is anticipated over the North Sea by late afternoon/evening hours to the north of the Netherlands, but this could occur slightly earlier and therefore closer to eastern England - and so requires some monitoring.