Convective Outlook: Wed 02 Sep 2020
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 02 Sep 2020 - 05:59 UTC Thu 03 Sep 2020

ISSUED 20:05 UTC Tue 01 Sep 2020

ISSUED BY: Chris

A deep low and the associated forward side of an upper trough (PVA) will move into Ireland and northern and western Britain during Wednesday. Outbreaks of showery rain with some heavier downpours will develop along and just ahead of an advancing cold front through the period. Instability in this zone is very limited / non-existent (up to 200 J/kg) so lightning is not expected to be very widespread. However, the trough/front will generate a strongly sheared environment with deep layer and low-level shear of 30-40kts.  The could help to force some embedded deeper convection and thus some lightning cannot be ruled out. An area over central and northern Ireland into W/SW Scotland is the favoured area for lightning between 15z-22z.