Convective Outlook: Thu 03 Sep 2020
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 03 Sep 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 04 Sep 2020

ISSUED 19:04 UTC Wed 02 Sep 2020

ISSUED BY: Chris

A deep Atlantic low just southeast of Iceland and associated upper trough axis will push slowly towards northwestern Scotland through Thursday. 


Instability will once again be limited (less than 200 J/kg) and quite shallow with the tops of any convection that can develop only reaching 10-12k feet. However, shear parameters will increase through the afternoon with as much as 40kts of shear possible by 18z on Thursday. With this in mind, lightning is not expected to be very widespread, however a few isolated lightning strikes could occur in any more organised convection, or lines of convection. 

Far northwestern Scotland will be slightly favoured within this area, during the late afternoon and overnight.