Convective Outlook: Thu 01 Oct 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 01 Oct 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 02 Oct 2020

ISSUED 06:15 UTC Thu 01 Oct 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Sharp, negatively-tilted upper trough will dig southwards into western Europe, with a rapidly-deepening surface low developing over NW France beneath the left exit of a jet streak. Cold air associated with this trough overspreading relatively warm seas will aid the development of deep convection and scattered showers over open seas in the south and west, and these will extend inland across Ireland, Wales, SW England in particular, but a few others are likely farther north and east too (while persistent rain lingers across parts of Scotland). With a few hundred J/kg CAPE and steep mid-level lapse rates, a few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible - more especially over seas and near adjacent coasts. Gusty winds and hail will accompany many of the showers. Overnight, a more widespread, prolonged period of rain is expected to develop around the rapidly deepening low, spreading across the English Channel into southern Britain.