Convective Outlook: Fri 02 Oct 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 02 Oct 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 03 Oct 2020

ISSUED 07:05 UTC Fri 02 Oct 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Bands of rain will spiral around a deep surface low near the Channel Islands, but there may be scope for a drier slot to occur over the English Channel / southern England as a marked dry intrusion overspreads the area, which could encourage some deep convection to develop. Steep mid-level lapse rates and 300-500 J/kg CAPE could evolve, and heavy showers / a thunderstorms could develop over the English Channel and drift inland into parts of southern England, capable of producing a few sporadic lightning strikes. Confidence in extent and location of any lightning is a little too low to warrant a SLGT, but the risk is considered 15-20% for southern England coasts and moving inland across the West Country.