Convective Outlook: Sat 03 Oct 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 03 Oct 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 04 Oct 2020

ISSUED 07:04 UTC Sat 03 Oct 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Large negatively-tilted upper trough covers northwest Europe, with a surface low developing across the Midlands. Frontal rain will affect many parts of the British Isles through this forecast period, but cold advection over relatively warm seas across SW Ireland, Celtic Sea, extreme SW England and later the Channel Islands will encourage deep convection to develop from late afternoon through the evening and night hours, heading southeastwards. Steep mid-level lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg CAPE suggests a few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible, primarily offshore. There may also be an uptick in convection across SE England and East Anglia during the evening and night hours, migrating northwestwards, with a small risk of a few isolated lightning strikes.