Convective Outlook: Sun 04 Oct 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 04 Oct 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 05 Oct 2020

ISSUED 08:06 UTC Sun 04 Oct 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Scattered showers will develop to the north of a surface low, centred over the Midlands - so the primary focus will be northern England and eastern Scotland, showers then rotating west then southwards around the surface low. Given reasonably-steep mid-level lapse rates and a couple hundred J/kg CAPE, a few isolated lightning strikes will be possible. Through the evening and night there may be a slight uptick in sporadic lightning activity towards the eastern English Channel and southern North Sea, largely offshore but perhaps close to the Kent / Essex / Suffolk coasts.