Convective Outlook: Fri 23 Oct 2020
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 23 Oct 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 24 Oct 2020

ISSUED 06:45 UTC Fri 23 Oct 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Showery bursts of rain across East Anglia and SE England on Friday morning has a very low risk of lightning (5-10% chance). Meanwhile, a weakening band of frontal rain will spread eastwards across Britain through the day, although there may be a temporary uptick in intensity late morning from Isle of Man to NW England, and perhaps again during the evening over the English Channel.

Behind this front, an upper trough will swing northeastwards across Northern Ireland and Scotland, with scattered showers likely in an environment with steep mid-level lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg CAPE. As such, a few isolated lightning strikes could occur here (10-15% chance). These will ease by evening as ridging develops ahead of the next Atlantic frontal system, which will push an active cold front eastwards across Ireland during the early hours of Saturday - given the strongly-sheared environment, some bowing segments are likely which may produce locally damaging gusts of wind. Squally showers will also follow into western Ireland at the end of the night.