Convective Outlook: Wed 28 Oct 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 28 Oct 2020 - 05:59 UTC Thu 29 Oct 2020

ISSUED 06:58 UTC Wed 28 Oct 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper troughing covers the British Isles on Wednesday, with a cold pool aloft atop seasonably warm SSTs generating several hundred J/kg CAPE. Another day of showers is expected, driven by warm seas initially and then pushed inland by the west/southwesterly steering winds, occasionally organised into more distant bands at times. As is often the case, the risk of a few isolated lightning strikes is greatest over open waters and near adjacent coasts where winds are onshore (so southern and western coasts, 15-20% chance). Hail is likely in many of the showers. Many eastern areas, with the longest land track, may see very few showers during this period. Showers will ease in coverage and intensity on Wednesday evening as a transient ridge arrives from the west, ahead of the next Atlantic low pressure and associated frontal rain.