Convective Outlook: Fri 30 Oct 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 30 Oct 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 31 Oct 2020

ISSUED 09:02 UTC Fri 30 Oct 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

During Friday daytime, scattered showers affecting northern and western Scotland pose a very low risk (5% chance) of isolated lightning. Overnight, attention turns to Ireland / Irish Sea / western Britain as the next Atlantic frontal system arrives. There is potential for some embedded elevated convection to run northwards across these areas during the night, although given rather saturated profiles and weak CAPE it is questionable whether much (if any) lightning will actually occur.