Convective Outlook: Sat 31 Oct 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 31 Oct 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 01 Nov 2020

ISSUED 07:58 UTC Sat 31 Oct 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A cold front will track eastwards across the British Isles on Saturday, as a deepening low quickly migrates northeastwards to the west of Ireland and Scotland. Initially the cold front will be rather active with pulses of heavy rain and embedded convection, capable of producing a few isolated lightning strikes, however it is expected to weaken as it continues to head eastwards and the upper forcing overruns. Given strong low-level shear and weak CAPE, theoretically line segments could develop posing the risk of squally winds and perhaps an isolated tornado - however with the upper forcing lifting northwards and the front weakening, this risk will be increasingly somewhat limited as time goes on. Nonetheless, some line segments with shallow convection are possible, but the lightning risk overall is considered very low in most areas (probably greatest near western coasts of Britain during the morning).