Convective Outlook: Sun 01 Nov 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 01 Nov 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 02 Nov 2020

ISSUED 07:37 UTC Sun 01 Nov 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Showers and longer spells of showery rain will affect western and northern Scotland through Sunday daytime. Convection will be relatively shallow in depth, but may be capable of producing the odd isolated lightning strike (10% chance). Elsewhere, outbreaks of rain may contain some embedded elevated convection across parts of southern Ireland into Wales and NW England, more especially in the afternoon and evening. While the risk of lightning is considered quite low (5-10%), the odd isolated strike cannot be ruled out. Given the strongly-sheared environment, some line convection may evolve through the evening and night hours across parts of Ireland into England and Wales, sinking southeastwards. Late in the night, deep convection and heavy showers will return to W Ireland as cold air aloft overspreads relatively warm seas, bringing an increased risk of a few lightning strikes towards the end of the night near western coasts (10-15% chance).