VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 02 Nov 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 03 Nov 2020

ISSUED 09:14 UTC Mon 02 Nov 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A broad upper trough and associated cold pool will become increasingly dominant across the British Isles on Monday, with minor shortwaves running eastwards along its southern flank. Several hundred J/kg CAPE are expected as a result of cold air aloft atop seasonably warm SSTs, this aiding generation of numerous showers over seas and advecting inland on the westerly steering winds. Hence showers will be most numerous and frequent in western coastal areas, and much more isolated farther inland / east. Shortwaves/occlusions will be responsible for some organisation of showers into more distinct bands or areas of showery rain, such as over Ireland into southern Scotland / northern England / north Wales, and an increasingly-defined comma cloud that will likely push an area of showery rain across SW England / S Wales on Monday night into central southern England and parts of the Midlands. This feature could produce some hail and quite squally winds on the leading edge of the trailing tail portion, and so Channel coasts most prone to strong gusts of wind.